This Week in Golf -- February 9th through February 12th

Golf Betting Lines

02/06/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - PGA TOUR - AT&T PEBBLE BEACH NATIONAL PRO- AM - Pebble Beach Golf Links, Monterey Peninsula Country Club, Spyglass Hill Golf Club, Pebble Beach, California - One might look at this week's field for the Pebble Beach National Pro-Am and think it is lacking the stars with just one player ranked in the top-10 in the world playing this week.

That surely isn't the case however.

Tiger Woods makes his return to this event for the first time since 2002 and is one of eight former champions in the field that account for 12 titles.

World No. 9 Dustin Johnson, who won this event in 2009-10, is the highest- ranked player in the field. Woods and Johnson are joined in the field by Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh, Jim Furyk and Geoff Ogilvy.

However, it is D.A. Points that is the defending champion. Points fired a seven-under 63 at Monterey Peninsula in the opening round and closed with a five-under 67 en route to a two-stroke win over Hunter Mahan.

Points not only won the professional title, but he teamed with Bill Murray to win the Pro-Am crown as well. For Murray, it marked the first time he won the Pro-Am in 20 years of competing at this event.

The 35-year-old Points has had a solid start to his season as he has made the cut in each of his four events, has three top-12 finishes and ranks 12th on the money list.

Woods played on the European Tour two weeks ago and shared the lead entering the final round, but closed with an even-par 72 to share third place behind Robert Rock.

In 2000, Woods erased a five-stroke deficit to come from behind and win this title. It was his sixth straight PGA Tour victory.

Later that year, Woods would win three of the four majors. Among those three was his dominating 15-stroke victory at the U.S. Open on this same Pebble Beach course.

Woods is still searching for his first PGA Tour win since the 2009 BMW Championship.

With the amateurs included in the event, the field will play one round apiece at Pebble Beach Golf Links, Monterey Peninsula Country Club and Spyglass Hill Golf Club before the final round is contested at Pebble Beach.

Murray is back to defend his Pro-Am title against a field of celebrities that includes musicians Michael Bolton, Huey Lewis and Darius Rucker; football coaches Jim Harbuagh, Nick Saban and Bob Stoops; as well as a group of athletes that includes Clyde Drexler, Matt Cain, Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo, who will team with Woods in the Pro-Am.

Golf Channel will broadcast the first two rounds before CBS takes over on the weekend.

The PGA Tour heads to Riviera next week for the Northern Trust Open, where Aaron Baddeley earned a two-stroke win over Vijay Singh last year.

EUROPEAN TOUR

OMEGA DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC - Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, United Arab Emirates - The European Tour wraps up its three-week swing through the Persian Gulf region with the Dubai Desert Classic.

Spain's Alvaro Quiros enjoyed Dubai, twice last year. He closed with three straight 68s at this event to win by a shot over Anders Hansen and James Kingston.

Quiros wasn't done in Dubai though. When the tour returned in December for the season-ending Dubai World Championship, Quiros had four straight sub-par rounds en route to a two-stroke victory over Paul Lawrie. He sealed the win with a 50-foot eagle putt at the last.

The Spaniard will have a tough battle on his hands in his title defense as World Nos. 2, 3 and 4 - Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood and Martin Kaymer - are in the field this week.

A group of Americans also highlights the field as Champions Tour stalwarts Fred Couples and Mark O'Meara will be joined at Emirates Golf Club by Nicholas Thompson, Peter Uihlein and John Daly, who took fourth place last week behind Paul Lawrie.

Golf Channel will have early morning coverage of all four rounds.

The tour shifts to India next week, where local favorite S.S.P. Chowrasia closed with back-to-back 67s to win the Avantha Masters by a shot over Robert Coles.

LPGA TOUR

ISPS HANDA WOMEN'S AUSTRALIAN OPEN - Royal Melbourne Golf Club, Victoria, Australia - The Women's Australian Open joins the LPGA Tour schedule this year for the first time.

The event has been around since 1974, but was only played 20 times in those 37 years.

Women's world No. 1 Yani Tseng won this title each of the last two years. Last year, she rolled to a seven-stroke win over three players.

The event will be played on the par-73 Royal Melbourne Golf Club for the first time.

Golf Channel will have tape-delayed coverage of all four rounds.

The LPGA continues its three-event Asia swing next week with the Honda LPGA Thailand, where Tseng cruised to a five-stroke win over Michelle Wie.

CHAMPIONS TOUR

ALLIANZ CHAMPIONSHIP - The Old Course at Broken Sound, Boca Raton, Florida - The Champions Tour returns after a two-week break with the first of two events in Florida.

Tom Lehman back-to-back 69s win last year's Allianz Championship by a single stroke over Jeff Sluman and Rod Spittle. Lehman needed a birdie on the final hole to win for the third time on the Champions Tour.

The 1996 British Open champion went on to win two more events en route to being named the tour's Player of the Year.

Lehman, Sluman and Spittle are all in the field this week at the Old Course at Broken Sound, which has hosted the event all five years of its existence.

Golf Channel has tape-delayed coverage all week.

The Champions Tour moves to Naples next week for the ACE Group Classic. Bernhard Langer shot 66 in the final two rounds to cruise to a four-stroke win over Fred Funk.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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