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01/16/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hansen and Union Rags ran their hearts out last November in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile with the former defeating the latter by a diminishing head. Hansen comes into 2012 undefeated in three starts while Union Rags has three wins in four tries.
Will either colt be able to bring home the roses on the first Saturday in May? If recent history is a guide, the answer is a resounding no. The last horse that finished first or second in the "Two-Year-Old of the Year" voting to make any noise in the Kentucky Derby was five years ago when Street Sense prevailed under Calvin Borel.
Hansen, who will make his three-year-old debut in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park in less than two weeks, did nothing wrong as a two-year-old. However, his running style (on the lead) and pedigree (both top and bottom) will prevent him from being a major player on May 5th.
Union Rags has a much more reasonable chance of crossing the finish line first at Churchill Downs, but in order to do so, he must correct his tendency to drift out through the stretch, something that has troubled him in two of four career races. In fact, had he run a straight course down the long Churchill stretch in the Juvenile, he would have defeated Hansen and remained unbeaten heading into 2012.
The son of Dixie Union will have just two starts before the Kentucky Derby beginning with the Fountain of Youth Stakes in late February, followed by the Florida Derby five weeks before the first Saturday in May.
One colt that should not be overlooked is Creative Cause. The third-place finisher (beaten only a length) in the BC Juvenile has lost only twice in five lifetime attempts. Nevertheless, there are question marks about his ability to get the 1 1/4-mile distance and the February 19th San Vicente Stakes at seven- furlongs will not provide any legitimate answers.
Trainer Todd Pletcher has his usual highly-rated bunch of three-year-olds aimed for Kentucky with Discreet Dancer, Gemologist and Algorithms leading the way.
Discreet Dancer is undefeated in two starts, including a track record performance in his debut. After winning that race by 9 3/4-lengths, the son of Discreet Cat overpowered an entry-level allowance field by 5 1/2-lengths, while running the mile in a solid 1:36 1/5.
His capacity to handle nine or even 10 furlongs remains an issue since his sire (Discreet Cat) was a miler and his dam's only other foal (Travelin Man) was a sprinter. Pletcher doesn't know when Discreet Dancer will run next but it's obvious a stakes appearance is in order.
Gemologist, as is the case with Union Rags, will make just two starts prior to the Derby. The WinStar Farm colt concluded his two-year-old campaign with an impressive victory over favored Ever So Lucky in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Gemologist has won two of his three races around two turns and since he is sired by Tiznow (whose progeny usually improve as they get older), look for him to be a major player on the road to Kentucky.
Algorithms has started just twice in his young career but both times the son of Bernardini proved best. He rolled by over five lengths in his debut last summer at Belmont Park and then hit the winner's circle once again at Gulfstream Park on December 16th defeating the highly-rated Consortium by a length. He is a little bit behind the early contenders since he has yet to race further than 6 1/2-furlongs. However, the bay colt will meet up with Hansen in the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes later this month to prove he belongs.
OTHER POSSIBLE CHALLENGERS
Creative Cause is not the only star in California as Liaison, Out of Bounds, and Sky Kingdom could all become Kentucky Derby starters if they remain healthy.
Liaison has won back-to-back, two-turn, stakes events but questions will always come up about the 1 1/4-mile distance since Indian Charlie is his sire. Remember all the talk last spring about Uncle Mo (also sired by Indian Charlie) and how he failed miserably as the distances increased.
Out of Bounds was never involved in his initial race last October, but the Eoin Harty-trained colt has rebounded with a pair of victories, including the one-mile Sham Stakes at Santa Anita.
Sent off as the surprising 10-1 fourth choice, Out of Bounds collared the 1-2 favorite Secret Circle in the stretch to win by a half-length while completing the mile in 1:34 2/5 seconds. His next start will be the San Felipe Stakes on March 10th, followed by the Santa Anita Derby in early April.
Out of Bounds should be capable of winning at nine furlongs as his half- brother Etched and dam Unbridled Elaine had done so on multiple occasions. The big test will come in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby.
The 10-furlong distance will not be a problem for Sky Kingdom, who has won two of three races around two turns. The son of Empire Maker recently scored the easiest of victories in his first start on dirt as he mowed down Smart Ellis by 4 1/2-lengths, a number that could have been closer to 10 if jockey Martin Garcia had asked him for more through the stretch.
Previously, Sky Kingdom had run fourth in the Cash Call Futurity, a very good effort considering he was bumped at the start, which caused him to race further off the pace than usual.
As previously mentioned, Sky Kingdom is one of the few Kentucky Derby contenders bred for the 1 1/4-mile distance. His dam, Sky Beam, is a full- sister to 2008 Travers Stakes runner-up Mambo in Seattle, and his second dam, Weekend in Seattle, is a full-sister to 1992 Horse of the Year, A.P. Indy.
Other three-year-olds to watch in the coming month are Alpha, Sabercat, Rousing Sermon, Ever So Lucky, Brother Francis, I'll Have Another, Casual Trick, Fed Biz, Blingo, and Consulado.
JEFF FRANK'S INITIAL 2012 "DIRTY DOZEN"
1) Sky Kingdom; 2) Union Rags; 3) Algorithms; 4) Gemologist; 5) Discreet Dancer; 6) Hansen; 7) Alpha; 8) Out of Bounds; 9) Liaison; 10) Creative Cause; 11) Consortium; 12) Sabercat
<< Wagner makes huge leap in world rankings
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Johnson Wagner's victory Sunday at the
Sony Open in Hawaii eared him a huge leap in this week's world rankings.
Wagner rocketed up 106 spots to No. 92 this week after his two-stroke victory.
Luke Do
<< Stars' Ribeiro lands on IR
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Dallas Stars placed center Mike Ribeiro on
injured reserve Monday.
The move is retroactive to January 7, when he suffered a lower-body injury
against the Edmonton Oilers.
In 40 games this season, Ri
<< Anderson, Stalberg, Malkin named NHL's 'Three Stars'
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ottawa Senators goalie Craig Anderson,
Chicago Blackhawks left winger Viktor Stalberg, and Pittsburgh Penguins center
Evgeni Malkin have been named the NHL's 'Three Stars' for the week ending
January
<< Syracuse remains top team in men's hoops poll
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Syracuse is again the top team in the latest
Associated Press men's college basketball poll.
The Orange, after double-digit wins over Villanova and Providence last week,
again earned 60 first-place vote
Winning on the road is as tough as it sounds >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I wouldn't have wanted to be in Frank
Martin's locker room Saturday afternoon.
The same holds true for those of Roy Williams, or Tom Izzo or John Beilein.
Winning on the road is difficult in co
Royals sign C Pena to one-year deal >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Kansas City Royals have avoided
arbitration with Brayan Pena, signing the catcher to a one-year contract.
The 30-year-old Pena batted .248 with 11 doubles, three home runs and 24 RBI
in 72 gam
Baylor still undisputed No. 1 in women's hoops >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Baylor remained a unanimous choice as the No.
1 team in the Associated Press women's college basketball poll.
The Lady Bears again received all 39 first-place votes and a total of 975
points from a nati
Pirates, Morton avoid arbitration >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Pirates agreed to terms with
pitcher Charlie Morton on a one-year contract, thus avoiding arbitration.
Morton made a career-high 29 starts for Pittsburgh in 2011, going 10-10 after
posting
The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.
Thursday, August 21
NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37
NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road
In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games
Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.
Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.
Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.
That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.
Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.
CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?
Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite. Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight. With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites. As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).
Midwest
#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler
The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April. Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT. After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games. Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season. As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers. Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS). Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field. With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.
#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV
As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year. If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season. As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well. This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons. Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late. There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games. It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.
East
#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown
“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season. Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU. They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games. With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field. Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense. Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc. The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range. Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.
#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC
The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country. Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times. Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter. UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen. UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS. An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games. This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS. USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types. An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough. USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS. They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12. When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
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